Wuhan summit, A personal initiative of PM Modi during his first term opened a frank discussion between India and China, the two largest followers of Dharmic faiths. India and China are the dharmic cousins separated by politics systems. Together they constitute 37% of the world’s population and 40% of world trade. Both countries have a common enemy – Radical Islamic terrorism. On people to people connect Dr Swamy is a highly respected Indian politician in China. His communication with China constitutes India’s track II diplomacy. China’s over confidence against India comes from their military victory over India in 1962. However, Chinese should also remember their defeat in Sikkim in 1967 against Indian Armed Forces. In numbers Indian and Chinese Armed Forces are 1:1 if we take reserves into account. China has more equipment in numbers but Indian Armed Forces excel in training, experience and rapid reach with superior qualitative equipment. 2017 Doklam and 2020 Ladakh have also proved that Indian Armed Forces hold an edge over their Chinese counterparts.
The myth of 1962 military defeat of India has been used by Chinese media as a psyops to humiliate Indian minds but the fact is that in every single conflict after 1962, India has held an edge over Chinese PLA in every theater of war. Therefore, in Military terms, India definitely has an edge over China today.
This military edge of India has brought China to the negotiating table through dexterous moves by peace loving PM of resurgent India, Shri Narendra Modi. It is entirely to the diplomatic credit of Shri Modi ji that he has brought long lasting peace on Chinese border on the basis of the military strength of Indian Armed Forces. Indians should not think that merely friendly gestures of Modiji has forced Chinese to informal summits. The history of communist China has shown repeatedly that they respect military strength more than diplomatic strength. Otherwise Chinese won’t even wink at any negotiation just like what they have done in the South China Sea.
In the South China Sea they bulldozed their way against ASEAN nations into making a permanent military installation in the middle of South China Sea.
The advantage of Indian Military build up against Chinese has enabled the magic of informal summits from Wuhan to Chennai between Chinese and Indian leadership. For this spirit to continue, India has to put social emphasis on matching the military equipment parity to ensure that India has at Least 2:1 qualitative superiority over China and ability to perform military operations deep inside Chinese territory while engaging Pakistan on the western borders. That will dissuade China more for any adventurism on India borders or in Indian Ocean.
Trade with China also has to be more controlled so that Chinese financial trapping schemes are dissuaded right at the onset.
Chinese are tough negotiators and very risk averse. Chinese will never bring any innovative approach unlike Indians. Their economy is on the supply side of the value chain and they rely on the demand side to be more risk takers which is quite illogical. Throughout the world they have destroyed economies of smaller nations because those countries couldn’t negotiate well enough with the dragon. With the USA, Chinese got trapped in their own game but they couldn’t do much against the USA, because of their military strength vis-a-vis the USA. Russia has been temporarily trapped in their financial trade trap but just because Russia is militarily strong, Chinese won’t be able to bend them much.
Wuhan and Chennai spirit are great but not enough to maintain and contain Chinese Communist expansionist mindset.
Elephant has to show its unpredictability and strength to continue to tango with Chinese dragon. It’s the play of strength that matters. This tango will continue as long as
- India continues its military modernization and capability development
- India shows its willingness to take tough military decisions on the border
- India protects its neighbors from Chinese financial traps. India should rescue Sri Lanka from Chinese debt trap. India should educate Nepal about the financial tactics of Chinese loan givers
- Indian Navy continues to build on its capabilities to ultimately become an expeditionary force to project its power on Chinese ports
Historically, Chinese respected Pallava kings because of their strong naval power in addition to their trading skills . This was a masterpiece by the Modi Administration to bring history into perspective for Chinese leadership and that fact was very well understood by Chinese planners. It’s time for the two most populous countries to be tied together on the basis of Dharma and also to Protect Dharma.
To Summarize , China and India share a common culture centered around Dharma. Both China and India share common enemies and history. However, the expansionist ideology of communist party of China is based around exploitation of neighbors using their military strength. India will have to expand their military strength to gain respect of communist party of China. India also needs to publicly state that Taiwan, HongKong and Tibet are all on the table if Chinese resistance to UNSC permanent Seat for India, and support to Pakistani Terrorists continues.